Since the collapse of the Somali state in 1991, Somalia—supported by international and regional partners—has undertaken a long and complex process of political recovery and state reconstitution. Through a series of nationally and internationally supported reconciliation conferences, Somalia gradually re-established core governance institutions. Notably, the Arta Peace Conference, facilitated by the Republic of Djibouti under the leadership of H.E. President Ismail Omar Guelleh, led to the creation of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), marking a critical step in restoring national political authority. Subsequent internationally backed transitions culminated in the end of the formal transitional period during the tenure of President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. Since then, Somalia has pursued the internationally recognized objective of establishing a democratic political system grounded in popular legitimacy, accountability, and constitutional order—ultimately anchored in the principle of one-person, one-vote elections. This objective is explicitly shared by the Federal Government of Somalia, Federal Member States, registered political stakeholders, and the broader Somali public, and is consistently supported by the United Nations, the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the European Union, Arab league, and bilateral partners. However, in line with international best practices on post-conflict democratic transitions, it is widely recognized that the implementation of universal suffrage elections must be conditions-based, gradual, and sensitive to security, institutional capacity, and political consensus. Constraints to Full One-Person, One-Vote Implementation by 2026 Despite demonstrable political commitment by the Federal Government—under the leadership of H.E. President Dr. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud—to move beyond indirect electoral models, a number of objective constraints make the full implementation of nationwide one-person, one-vote elections by mid-2026 impracticable: 1. Federal–State Political Disputes: Ongoing disagreements between the Federal Government and the Federal Member States of Puntland and Jubaland, particularly regarding electoral frameworks and the composition of electoral management bodies. 2. Security Environment: Persistent threats posed by Al-Shabaab, including targeted attacks aimed at disrupting political processes and voter participation. 3. Political Party Institutionalization: Incomplete registration, verification, and nationwide operational readiness of political parties. 4. Electoral Financing: Significant funding gaps following reductions in external financial assistance, limiting procurement, logistics, and staffing capacity. 5. Electoral Administration Capacity: Insufficient numbers of trained and experienced election officials to administer a nationwide popular vote. 6. Civic and Voter Education: Limited reach and scale of public awareness campaigns necessary for informed participation in universal suffrage elections. 7. Local Conflicts: Unresolved clan disputes and contested district boundaries affecting electoral constituency stability. 8. Voter Registration: The absence of a comprehensive, biometric, and universally trusted voter registry. 9. Electoral Technology: Limited access to modern, secure, and scalable election technologies that meet international standards. 10. Legacy Risks: Documented shortcomings in previous indirect electoral processes, including corruption, vote-buying, coercion, and procedural manipulation. These challenges underscore the need for a credible transitional electoral mechanism that preserves political stability, enhances integrity, and sustains momentum toward universal suffrage. Proposed Transitional (Middle-Ground) Electoral Model for 2026 Consistent with international norms on democratic transitions in post-conflict and fragile states, this proposal recommends the adoption of a time-bound, transitional, middleground electoral system for the 2026 elections, designed to bridge the gap between indirect selection mechanisms and full one-person, one-vote elections. Core Elements of the Model 1. Independent Candidacy: Candidates shall be permitted to contest parliamentary seats as independents, ensuring inclusivity and mitigating premature party dominance in a stillmaturing political system. 2. Retention of the 2021 Electoral Infrastructure: The model builds on the existing 2021 electoral architecture—including polling locations, delegate registration systems, and seat allocation frameworks—to minimize operational risks and costs. 3. Unified Federal Member State Delegate Colleges: All delegates within each Federal Member State shall be consolidated into a single electoral college. Delegates shall be issued standardized and secure identification credentials. The unified delegate college shall collectively elect all parliamentary seats allocated to that Federal Member State. Illustrative Application For example, if Hirshabelle is allocated 61 seats in the House of the People: 61 seats × 101 delegates per seat = 6,161 total delegates. Under this model, all 6,161 delegates participate in the election of each individual seat. Where multiple candidates contest a seat, voting is conducted by the entire delegate college of the Federal Member State, rather than a limited, seat-specific delegate group. The candidate receiving the highest number of votes is declared elected. Alignment with National Democratic Transition Principles This transitional electoral model is grounded in broadly recognized principles of democratic transition applicable to post-conflict and fragile states, while remaining firmly rooted in Somalia’s national context, constitutional aspirations, and political realities. Core Democratic Transition Principles The proposal reflects the following widely accepted principles: Gradual and Conditions-Based Transition: Recognizing that complex national elections should be implemented in phases, in line with security conditions, institutional readiness, and political consensus. National Ownership: Ensuring that Somali institutions and stakeholders retain full leadership and responsibility for the electoral process and its outcomes. Conflict Sensitivity: Designing electoral mechanisms that reduce the risk of political violence, exclusion, and destabilization during sensitive transition periods. Electoral Integrity: Expanding participation within transitional mechanisms to reduce corruption, vote-buying, coercion, and elite capture. Institutional Development: Strengthening electoral management structures and political practices as a foundation for future universal suffrage elections. This approach emphasizes realism, inclusivity, and sustainability while safeguarding political stability and public trust during the transition period. Conclusion Adopting a middle-ground electoral system for 2026 represents a pragmatic and nationally grounded approach to Somalia’s democratic transition. It balances aspiration with feasibility, reform with stability, and progress with institutional capacity. By implementing this model, Somalia can preserve democratic momentum, strengthen confidence in electoral outcomes, and move decisively toward the long-standing national goal of one-person, one-vote elections. Allah is the Granter of Success.
Mahmud Dahir Aweis
National Consultation Party.
